Al Ahed 5-3 Tadamon Sour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 8 Jul 2025

📅08/07/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.29
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
13%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
13%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
73%
-5.1pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.5pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+2.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Tadamon Sour EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.77/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/3.27
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -33%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahed
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Tadamon Sour
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
24.05.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 3-0 HT 2-0 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour LUBN
24.04.2025 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
13.02.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 4-0 HT 2-0 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour LUBN
POST-MATCH Al Ahed vs Tadamon Sour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed beat Tadamon Sour 5-3. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahed as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Ahed had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Ahed and 0.33 for Tadamon Sour.

What was the final score of Al Ahed vs Tadamon Sour?

Al Ahed 5-3 Tadamon Sour in the Lebanon - Premier League on 08/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahed vs Tadamon Sour?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Al Ahed 68%, draw 19%, Tadamon Sour 13%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahed), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LUBN More Lebanon - Premier League
8 Jul 2025
16:30 Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar Analysis →