Sestao River 0-1 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.51
Over
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.24
2-3
40%
1.79
4-5
19%
5.51
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.0pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestao River EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 33%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.66/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.71
+34% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +58%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestao River
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Lugo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.03.2024 Lugo Lugo 4-3 HT 1-3 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
02.12.2023 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestao River
0-1
AWAY Lugo
70% Ball Possession 30%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sestao River vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo squeezed past Sestao River 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Lugo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sestao River had 70% of the ball to Lugo's 30%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lugo led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sestao River and 2.50 for Lugo.

What was the final score of Sestao River vs Lugo?

Sestao River 0-1 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestao River vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sestao River win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sestao River 37%, draw 30%, Lugo 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sestao River) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sestao River) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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