Athletic Carpi 2-0 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.99
6+ Goals
12%
18.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.99 — our 26% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.32
+82% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Carpi
2-0
AWAY Perugia
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Athletic Carpi vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Carpi got the better of Perugia 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Athletic Carpi made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Carpi had 52% of the ball to Perugia's 48%, shots finished 13-14.

What was the final score of Athletic Carpi vs Perugia?

Athletic Carpi 2-0 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Carpi vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Athletic Carpi 32%, draw 29%, Perugia 39%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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