Pontedera 4-1 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.01
6+ Goals
8%
18.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontedera EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.73/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.85
+9% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontedera
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestri Levante
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.01.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-2 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
01.09.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 2-0 HT 1-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pontedera
4-1
AWAY Sestri Levante
58% Ball Possession 42%
3 Total Shots 3
0 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pontedera vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera ran out comfortable winners over Sestri Levante 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pontedera as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Pontedera had 58% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 42%, shots finished 3-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pontedera had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pontedera and 0.00 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of Pontedera vs Sestri Levante?

Pontedera 4-1 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontedera vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontedera win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pontedera 43%, draw 27%, Sestri Levante 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontedera), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pontedera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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