SPAL 2-3 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.99
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.7pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 28%
-16% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.48/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.06
+13% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
369 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lucchese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 2-1 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
09.11.2023 SPAL SPAL 0-2 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTCK
11.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
23.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
06.09.2015 SPAL SPAL 3-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
28.09.2014 SPAL SPAL 2-0 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
2-3
AWAY Lucchese
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese edged past SPAL 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was SPAL at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SPAL had 58% of the ball to Lucchese's 42%, shots finished 19-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lucchese led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for SPAL and 1.33 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Lucchese?

SPAL 2-3 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SPAL 42%, draw 26%, Lucchese 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
8 Sep 2024
17:15 Pianese vs Campobasso Analysis →
19:30 Athletic Carpi vs Perugia Analysis →
19:30 Pro Vercelli vs GIANA Erminio Analysis →
19:30 Legnago Salus vs Vis Pesaro Analysis →
19:30 Sorrento Calcio vs Team Altamura Analysis →
19:30 Pontedera vs Sestri Levante Analysis →