Triestina 0-1 Caldiero Terme — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.2
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.9pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Triestina EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldiero Terme EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +64% / +64%
1.60/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
+1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -33%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Triestina
0-1
AWAY Caldiero Terme
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
15 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Triestina vs Caldiero Terme
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldiero Terme squeezed past Triestina 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Triestina at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Triestina had 68% of the ball to Caldiero Terme's 32%, shots finished 24-9.

What was the final score of Triestina vs Caldiero Terme?

Triestina 0-1 Caldiero Terme in the Italy - Serie C on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Triestina vs Caldiero Terme?

Before kick-off our model rated a Triestina win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Triestina 51%, draw 22%, Caldiero Terme 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Triestina), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Triestina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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