Fakel 1-0 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 8 Sep 2025

📅08/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.8pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -21%
1.00/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.09
-9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
25.09.2019 Fakel Fakel 1-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-0
AWAY Arsenal Tula
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel squeezed past Arsenal Tula 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Fakel made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 46% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 54%, shots finished 6-5.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Arsenal Tula?

Fakel 1-0 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 08/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fakel 38%, draw 26%, Arsenal Tula 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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