Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Auckland — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Auckland — Actual Match Statistics
Auckland nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 2-1 away from home.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 60% of the ball to Auckland's 40%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.01 to 2.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auckland's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Auckland led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 3.33 for Auckland.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Auckland in the Australia - A-League on 08/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
Before kick-off our model rated an Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 24%, draw 24%, Auckland 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.