Malaga 1-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 8 Dec 2024

Malaga
1-1 HT 1-0
Almeria
📅08/12/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Malaga vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
17.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.14
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
14%
7.15
X/2
16%
5.59
X/X
10%
4.64
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.61
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.7pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.9pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Malaga v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.07/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.28
-32% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.8 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Malaga vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Almeria
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.91 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
329 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.07.2024 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria HAZ
27.07.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-1 Malaga Malaga HAZ
12.02.2022 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.09.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
30.03.2021 Malaga Malaga 0-3 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
13.12.2020 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS2

Malaga 1-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
1-1
AWAY Almeria
0.37 xG 1.02
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 21
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
248 Passes 345
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga and Almeria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Malaga had 43% of the ball to Almeria's 57%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.37 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Malaga and 1.67 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Almeria?

Malaga 1-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Malaga 33%, draw 23%, Almeria 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Almeria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS2 More Spain - 2nd Division
8 Dec 2024
16:00 Racing Ferrol vs Real Oviedo Analysis →
20:30 Burgos vs Eldense Analysis →
20:30 Albacete vs CD Castellon Analysis →
23:00 Cordoba vs Tenerife Analysis →