Maribor 4-0 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.5pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.2pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.28/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.49
+27% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Nafta
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-3 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
16.01.2024 Maribor Maribor 0-3 HT 0-1 Nafta Nafta HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
4-0
AWAY Nafta
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor ran out comfortable winners over Nafta 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Maribor had 67% of the ball to Nafta's 33%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Maribor and 1.50 for Nafta.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Nafta?

Maribor 4-0 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Maribor 56%, draw 20%, Nafta 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5
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