Mantova 2-1 Triestina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
34%
3.72
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.39
6+ Goals
8%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 32% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-14.1pp
34%
Draw
23%
+10.6pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Triestina EU Bookmakers 24%
+15% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
2.09/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.25
+32% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Triestina
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2023 Triestina Triestina 4-1 HT 2-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
05.03.2023 Mantova Mantova 1-0 HT 1-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
30.10.2022 Triestina Triestina 2-1 HT 2-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
27.02.2022 Mantova Mantova 0-1 HT 0-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
20.10.2021 Triestina Triestina 2-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
02.05.2021 Triestina Triestina 1-1 HT 0-1 Mantova Mantova İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
2-1
AWAY Triestina
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Triestina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova squeezed past Triestina 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mantova had 62% of the ball to Triestina's 38%, shots finished 16-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Triestina led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mantova and 1.67 for Triestina.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Triestina?

Mantova 2-1 Triestina in the Italy - Serie C on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Triestina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mantova 42%, draw 34%, Triestina 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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