Sestri Levante 1-0 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Feb 2024

Sestri Levante
1-0 HT 0-0
Perugia
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

Sestri Levante vs Perugia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.3pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-10.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sestri Levante v Perugia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 56%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.73/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.66
-30% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +28%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
242 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sestri Levante vs Perugia Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Perugia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC

Sestri Levante 1-0 Perugia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
1-0
AWAY Perugia
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestri Levante nicked a narrow win over Perugia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Perugia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 54% of the ball to Perugia's 46%, shots finished 22-10.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs Perugia?

Sestri Levante 1-0 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 30%, draw 29%, Perugia 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Perugia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
9 Feb 2024
22:45 Pontedera vs Arezzo Analysis →
22:45 SPAL vs Recanatese Analysis →
22:45 Mantova vs Triestina Analysis →
22:45 Gubbio vs Pescara Analysis →
22:45 Rimini vs Cesena Analysis →