SPAL 1-0 Recanatese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Feb 2024

SPAL
1-0 HT 0-0
Recanatese
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

SPAL vs Recanatese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

SPAL v Recanatese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Recanatese EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.10/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.54
-31% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

SPAL vs Recanatese Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Recanatese
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Recanatese Recanatese 1-0 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC

SPAL 1-0 Recanatese — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
1-0
AWAY Recanatese
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Recanatese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL edged past Recanatese 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had SPAL as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, SPAL had 48% of the ball to Recanatese's 52%, shots finished 10-6.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Recanatese?

SPAL 1-0 Recanatese in the Italy - Serie C on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Recanatese?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SPAL 44%, draw 26%, Recanatese 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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