Nimes 1-0 Avranches — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.81
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
11%
6.92
X/X
16%
4.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.5
2/2
10%
5.36
2/X
5%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nimes EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Avranches EU Bookmakers 30%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -20%
1.00/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.58
-29% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nimes
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Avranches
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
5 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2023 Avranches Avranches 2-0 HT 0-0 Nimes Nimes FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nimes
1-0
AWAY Avranches
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nimes vs Avranches
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nimes edged past Avranches 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nimes as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nimes had 61% of the ball to Avranches's 39%, shots finished 19-5.

What was the final score of Nimes vs Avranches?

Nimes 1-0 Avranches in the France - National League 1 on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nimes vs Avranches?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nimes win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nimes 45%, draw 29%, Avranches 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nimes), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nimes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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