Kortrijk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 9 Feb 2025

Kortrijk
1-2 HT 0-1
Union Saint-Gilloise
📅09/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.09
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
56%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
9.59
1/2
7%
21.7
1/X
7%
18.45
X/1
8%
11.6
X/2
15%
3.92
X/X
10%
5.96
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.87
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
16.35
Value flag · 2/X at 16.35 — our 8% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
17%
+2.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
56%
Away Win
62%
-5.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kortrijk v Union Saint-Gilloise — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kortrijk EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 66%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.15/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.86
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +0%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 82%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
17.5 Crosses 19.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kortrijk
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.82 xG 2.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
292 Passes 366
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 HT 1-0 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
18.02.2024 Kortrijk Kortrijk 1-3 HT 0-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
12.11.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 HT 2-0 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
23.04.2023 Kortrijk Kortrijk 2-4 HT 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
13.08.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
05.03.2022 Kortrijk Kortrijk 2-3 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL

Kortrijk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kortrijk
1-2
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.78 xG 2.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
222 Passes 330
65% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Kortrijk 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kortrijk had 45% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 55%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.78 to 2.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kortrijk and 3.00 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Kortrijk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Kortrijk 19%, draw 25%, Union Saint-Gilloise 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ BTTS No
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