Farense vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Farense v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Farense vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Farense
POR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR2
3-2
HT 1-1
Farense
POR2
2-2
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR2
2-3
HT 0-0
Farense
POR
Farense 0-2 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional got the better of Farense 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Farense had 56% of the ball to Nacional's 44%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.47 — on chances, Farense could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Farense and 1.50 for Nacional.
What was the final score of Farense vs Nacional?
Farense 0-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Farense vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Farense 36%, draw 28%, Nacional 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.