Sporting Braga 2-0 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.9
Over
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.27
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
22%
3.38
6+
10%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
26%
4.15
X/2
9%
9.72
X/X
12%
5.14
2/1
9%
23.0
2/2
8%
7.86
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · X/1 at 4.15 — our 26% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -21%
2.08/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.32
+30% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.1 Crosses 13.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 1.35
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
365 Passes 316
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
28.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-3 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
30.10.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
13.03.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-0
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.53 xG 0.30
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
565 Passes 309
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga beat Gil Vicente 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 63% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 37%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.53 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.83 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Sporting Braga 2-0 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 53%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
9 Feb 2025
18:30 Farense vs Nacional Analysis →
18:30 Estoril vs Boavista Analysis →
23:30 Casa Pia vs Estrela Analysis →