Sporting Braga 2-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.73
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.5
X/1
23%
3.57
X/2
8%
13.95
X/X
7%
6.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
8%
11.0
2/X
7%
19.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.8pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
2.12/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.61
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
24.9 Crosses 12.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
365 Passes 322
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-3 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
16.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
30.10.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
13.03.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
25.10.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.05.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.15 xG 2.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
455 Passes 260
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Gil Vicente 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 61% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 39%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.15 to 2.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gil Vicente.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.83 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Sporting Braga 2-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 58%, draw 21%, Gil Vicente 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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