Farense 1-1 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

Farense
1-1 HT 1-0
Rio Ave
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.81
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
12%
5.22
X/2
10%
5.57
X/X
10%
3.76
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
4.19
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.0pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.32/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.52
-22% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.1 Crosses 17.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Farense vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.82 xG 1.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
310 Passes 271
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-4 HT 2-2 Farense Farense POR
13.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense PORLC
23.01.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR2
15.08.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2
07.03.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
25.10.2020 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Farense 1-1 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-1
AWAY Rio Ave
1.30 xG 1.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
244 Passes 435
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Farense vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense and Rio Ave couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Farense had 40% of the ball to Rio Ave's 60%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.30 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Farense and 1.83 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Farense vs Rio Ave?

Farense 1-1 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Farense 36%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rio Ave), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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