Porto 4-1 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

Porto
4-1 HT 0-1
Vizela
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.18
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.11
2-3 Goals
46%
2.08
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
11%
5.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.28
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
32.5
X/1
23%
3.45
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
8%
10.7
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
5%
27.0
2/X
4%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
80%
-11.4pp
18%
Draw
13%
+5.2pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 9%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.40/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.74
+0% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -22%
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
482 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 74%
37.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
21.6 Crosses 13.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Vizela
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.79 xG 0.41
63% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
440 Passes 224
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Vizela Vizela 0-2 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
05.02.2023 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POR
16.12.2022 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela PORLC
14.08.2022 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
30.04.2022 Porto Porto 4-2 HT 2-1 Vizela Vizela POR
12.01.2022 Vizela Vizela 1-3 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
4-1
AWAY Vizela
3.06 xG 0.30
69% Ball Possession 31%
38 Total Shots 2
12 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 3
472 Passes 180
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
75 Box Touches 5
37 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto swept aside Vizela 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Porto had 69% of the ball to Vizela's 31%, shots finished 38-2, expected goals 3.06 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Porto and 0.50 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Porto vs Vizela?

Porto 4-1 Vizela in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Porto 69%, draw 18%, Vizela 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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