Hereford FC 0-1 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.0pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.50/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.46
+12% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hereford FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chorley
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
07.03.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-0 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
06.12.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
29.01.2022 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
06.11.2021 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
21.11.2020 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hereford FC
0-1
AWAY Chorley
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hereford FC vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley edged past Hereford FC 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Chorley made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hereford FC had 51% of the ball to Chorley's 49%, shots finished 13-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hereford FC and 1.50 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Hereford FC vs Chorley?

Hereford FC 0-1 Chorley in the England - Conference on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hereford FC vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hereford FC 36%, draw 27%, Chorley 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chorley) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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