Exeter City 2-2 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away Pick
56%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.97
Over
52%
1.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.74
No
47%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.58
2-3
46%
1.81
4-5
24%
3.35
6+
6%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.53
1/2
4%
22.7
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
8%
8.62
X/2
19%
4.06
X/X
14%
5.27
2/1
1%
34.5
2/2
33%
2.3
2/X
5%
14.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 4% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Exeter City The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers The Market 57%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.16 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.99
1.67 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.78
Bad Attack Strength Weak
Strong Defense Strength Great
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 77%
20 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
0.86 xG 1.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 Passes 322
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 7-0 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
07.04.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
17.12.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-0 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
01.05.2021 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
12.01.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
2 - 2
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.22 xG 0.85
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
243 Passes 421
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Exeter City vs Bolton Wanderers
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 2-2 draw left Exeter City and Bolton Wanderers with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-1.

File this under upsets: a 56% lean on Bolton Wanderers went begging. That's football — and exactly why we publish probabilities, not promises.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both.

The match data tells the story: Exeter City had 40% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 60%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.22 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Exeter City and 2.40 for Bolton Wanderers.

Exeter City vs Bolton Wanderers Result & Final Score

Exeter City 2 - 2 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Exeter City vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 21%, draw 23%, Bolton Wanderers 56%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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