Matlock Town 2-1 Lancaster City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matlock Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lancaster City EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.73/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.63
+4% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
363 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matlock Town
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Lancaster City
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
03.02.2024 Lancaster City Lancaster City 1-0 Matlock Town Matlock Town İNGNLP
28.01.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 2-1 HT 0-0 Matlock Town Matlock Town İNGNLP
24.09.2022 Matlock Town Matlock Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
05.02.2022 Matlock Town Matlock Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
23.10.2021 Lancaster City Lancaster City 0-2 HT 0-1 Matlock Town Matlock Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Matlock Town vs Lancaster City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matlock Town squeezed past Lancaster City 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Matlock Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lancaster City led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Matlock Town and 0.80 for Lancaster City.

What was the final score of Matlock Town vs Lancaster City?

Matlock Town 2-1 Lancaster City in the England - Non League Premier on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matlock Town vs Lancaster City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matlock Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Matlock Town 42%, draw 27%, Lancaster City 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matlock Town), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matlock Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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