Granada 2-3 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 9 Mar 2024

Granada
2-3 HT 2-1
Real Sociedad
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Granada vs Real Sociedad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
45%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.27
6+ Goals
6%
33.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 39% vs market 36.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
7.18
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
13%
16.1
X/1
5%
8.17
X/2
24%
3.94
X/X
8%
3.8
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
14%
2.6
2/X
4%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 66% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-4.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.7pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Granada v Real Sociedad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Granada EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 53%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.08/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.01
-18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.5 Crosses 16.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Granada vs Real Sociedad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Granada
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.83 xG 2.04
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
192 Passes 434
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 5-3 HT 2-1 Granada Granada İS1
13.02.2022 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 1-0 Granada Granada İS1
23.09.2021 Granada Granada 2-3 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
14.03.2021 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
08.11.2020 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 2-0 Granada Granada İS1
10.07.2020 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-3 HT 0-2 Granada Granada İS1

Granada 2-3 Real Sociedad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Granada
2-3
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.77 xG 2.23
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
175 Passes 391
65% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Granada vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad squeezed past Granada 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Sociedad as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Granada had 36% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 64%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.77 to 2.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Granada and 2.33 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Granada vs Real Sociedad?

Granada 2-3 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Primera Liga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Granada vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Granada 30%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Sociedad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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