Cagliari 4-2 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
16.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.42
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
16%
4.07
X/2
10%
8.43
X/X
10%
4.6
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.69
2/X
8%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.70/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.87
-29% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
27.1 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Salernitana
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.32 xG 1.09
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
311 Passes 256
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
08.05.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.11.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
14.05.2016 Cagliari Cagliari 3-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
24.12.2015 Salernitana Salernitana 0-1 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
06.01.2004 Salernitana Salernitana 3-2 HT 1-2 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
4-2
AWAY Salernitana
3.25 xG 0.92
28% Ball Possession 72%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
153 Passes 488
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari got the better of Salernitana 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cagliari had 28% of the ball to Salernitana's 72%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 3.25 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cagliari had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cagliari and 1.17 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Salernitana?

Cagliari 4-2 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 46%, draw 24%, Salernitana 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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