Sassuolo 1-0 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.31
1/2
10%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
11%
5.39
X/2
7%
6.18
X/X
13%
4.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
25.5
2/2
18%
4.01
2/X
10%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.4pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.46/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.16
+12% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.6 Crosses 14.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Frosinone
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.49
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
427 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
28 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 4-2 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
05.05.2019 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 0-2 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
16.12.2018 Frosinone Frosinone 0-2 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
08.05.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
06.01.2016 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 1-2 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
21.05.2011 Frosinone Frosinone 1-2 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
1-0
AWAY Frosinone
0.64 xG 1.27
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 2
249 Passes 432
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo nicked a narrow win over Frosinone 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Sassuolo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sassuolo had 39% of the ball to Frosinone's 61%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.64 to 1.27 — on chances, Frosinone could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sassuolo and 1.50 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Frosinone?

Sassuolo 1-0 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie A on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 38%, draw 28%, Frosinone 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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