Genoa 2-3 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Mar 2024

Genoa
2-3 HT 0-2
Monza
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.49
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.78
6+ Goals
8%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.96
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.25
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
11%
6.85
X/X
15%
3.93
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
15%
5.61
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.75
Value flag · 2/X at 14.75 — our 10% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.45/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.14
-8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +38%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.0 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Monza
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 0.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
331 Passes 374
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.12.2023 Monza Monza 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
08.04.2001 Monza Monza 1-5 HT 0-2 Genoa Genoa İTB
12.11.2000 Genoa Genoa 3-1 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
2-3
AWAY Monza
2.11 xG 1.71
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 1
417 Passes 230
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza edged past Genoa 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Monza made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genoa had 62% of the ball to Monza's 38%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.11 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Genoa had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Genoa and 1.00 for Monza.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Monza?

Genoa 2-3 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Genoa 40%, draw 29%, Monza 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Genoa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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