Ballymena United 2-4 Crusaders FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
53%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 27% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.96
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
5%
17.0
X/1
8%
9.69
X/2
14%
3.72
X/X
12%
5.09
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.14
2/X
6%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+5.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
53%
Away Win
57%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 61%
+11% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -6%
1.46/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.36
+33% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Crusaders FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.10.2023 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.08.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-2 HT 0-2 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.05.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-4 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRK
25.02.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
14.11.2022 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
23.09.2022 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ballymena United
2-4
AWAY Crusaders FC
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crusaders FC beat Ballymena United 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Crusaders FC as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Ballymena United had 41% of the ball to Crusaders FC's 59%, shots finished 10-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crusaders FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ballymena United and 1.67 for Crusaders FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC?

Ballymena United 2-4 Crusaders FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crusaders FC win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 24%, draw 23%, Crusaders FC 53%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crusaders FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crusaders FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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