Glenavon FC 4-0 Dungannon Swifts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 27% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.84
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
7%
5.99
X/2
6%
5.37
X/X
15%
5.19
2/1
11%
27.5
2/2
22%
3.3
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.03/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.41
-25% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Glenavon FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dungannon Swifts
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
09.09.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 3-1 HT 1-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
07.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
21.01.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 2-1 HT 1-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
26.11.2022 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 1-0 HT 0-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
08.10.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 5-0 HT 0-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Glenavon FC
4-0
AWAY Dungannon Swifts
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Glenavon FC vs Dungannon Swifts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glenavon FC cruised past Dungannon Swifts 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Glenavon FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Glenavon FC had 54% of the ball to Dungannon Swifts's 46%, shots finished 14-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dungannon Swifts led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Glenavon FC and 1.17 for Dungannon Swifts.

What was the final score of Glenavon FC vs Dungannon Swifts?

Glenavon FC 4-0 Dungannon Swifts in the North Ireland - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Glenavon FC vs Dungannon Swifts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dungannon Swifts win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Glenavon FC 35%, draw 28%, Dungannon Swifts 37%. The final score 4-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dungannon Swifts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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