Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

Kauno Zalgiris
1-2 HT 1-0
Hegelmann Litauen
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Lithuania - 1st Division – 2024

Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kauno Zalgiris v Hegelmann Litauen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.71/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/2.33
+9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -36%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-2 HT 2-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-4 HT 0-2 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
29.10.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-0 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
20.08.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
19.04.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 3-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
09.10.2022 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-1 HT 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1

Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Hegelmann Litauen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
1-2
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen squeezed past Kauno Zalgiris 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 55% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 45%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.50 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 48%, draw 24%, Hegelmann Litauen 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✓ BTTS Yes
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