Barakaldo 3-2 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.72
6+ Goals
10%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barakaldo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
1.38/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.83
-2% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +54%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barakaldo
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lugo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Barakaldo Barakaldo İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barakaldo
3-2
AWAY Lugo
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Barakaldo vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barakaldo squeezed past Lugo 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barakaldo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barakaldo had 63% of the ball to Lugo's 37%, shots finished 11-8.

What was the final score of Barakaldo vs Lugo?

Barakaldo 3-2 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barakaldo vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barakaldo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Barakaldo 44%, draw 28%, Lugo 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barakaldo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barakaldo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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