Aalborg 1-4 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 9 Mar 2025

Aalborg
1-4 HT 1-2
Midtjylland
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Denmark - Süperlig – 2024/2025

Aalborg vs Midtjylland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
49%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
3.14
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
7.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
1/X
9%
15.7
X/1
8%
9.28
X/2
16%
4.26
X/X
7%
5.72
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.17
2/X
6%
14.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+7.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aalborg v Midtjylland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 59%
-8% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.04/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.24
-61% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -13%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 82%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
17.5 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Aalborg vs Midtjylland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 1.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
339 Passes 328
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.08.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
19.01.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-4 HT 0-2 Aalborg Aalborg HAZ
21.05.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 0-2 HT 0-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
14.04.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
06.03.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 0-0 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.09.2022 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN

Aalborg 1-4 Midtjylland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
1-4
AWAY Midtjylland
0.53 xG 2.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 11
8 Corners 7
307 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 49
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland ran out comfortable winners over Aalborg 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Aalborg had 48% of the ball to Midtjylland's 52%, shots finished 10-28, expected goals 0.53 to 2.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aalborg and 1.00 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs Midtjylland?

Aalborg 1-4 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 29%, draw 22%, Midtjylland 49%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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