Katowice 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.62
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
10%
4.75
X/2
11%
7.58
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
10%
22.55
2/2
13%
5.4
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 30%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.04/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.79
-79% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
25.9 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.71 xG 1.04
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
38 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
31.08.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Katowice Katowice POL
25.04.2015 Katowice Katowice 0-5 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL1
28.09.2014 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Katowice Katowice POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
1-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
0.84 xG 1.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 8
305 Passes 181
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice squeezed past Zaglebie Lubin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Katowice had 58% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 42%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.84 to 1.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Zaglebie Lubin.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Zaglebie Lubin led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Katowice and 2.33 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Katowice 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Katowice 43%, draw 26%, Zaglebie Lubin 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ BTTS Yes
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