Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 9 Mar 2025

Lechia Gdansk
1-2 HT 1-0
Gornik Zabrze
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.41
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.47
X/2
16%
6.12
X/X
10%
4.81
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.06
2/X
10%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.61/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.15
+6% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
21.9 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.54 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
280 Passes 384
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-3 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
04.02.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
18.11.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
18.04.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-3 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
23.10.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
20.02.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-0 HT 2-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1-2
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.38 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 309
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
42 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze edged past Lechia Gdansk 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Gornik Zabrze made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 52% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 48%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.38 to 1.46 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lechia Gdansk.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.00 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 35%, draw 26%, Gornik Zabrze 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5
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