Celje 2-2 ND Primorje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.07
Over 2.5
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.81
No
41%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.7
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
31%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.72
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.5pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celje EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.28/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/2.81
+16% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / -41%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
332 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celje
1W-0D-1L
AWAY ND Primorje
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
10.11.2024 ND Primorje ND Primorje 1-3 HT 1-0 Celje Celje SLVN
25.08.2024 Celje Celje 0-3 HT 0-3 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celje
2-2
AWAY ND Primorje
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celje vs ND Primorje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje and ND Primorje shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Celje at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Celje had 63% of the ball to ND Primorje's 37%, shots finished 16-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celje and 2.00 for ND Primorje.

What was the final score of Celje vs ND Primorje?

Celje 2-2 ND Primorje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celje vs ND Primorje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Celje 50%, draw 24%, ND Primorje 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celje) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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