Nacional de Football 3-3 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-18.1pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.5pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
2.24/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.79
+28% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
3W-3D-0L
AWAY CA River Plate
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 3-3 HT 2-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
17.02.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
05.11.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
27.03.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
17.09.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
18.04.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
3-3
AWAY CA River Plate
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football and CA River Plate couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional de Football at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 41% of the ball to CA River Plate's 59%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate?

Nacional de Football 3-3 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 53%, draw 25%, CA River Plate 22%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ BTTS No
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9 Mar 2025
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