Alfreton Town 3-0 Gloucester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 9 Apr 2024

📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
3.0
6+ Goals
8%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 30% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
73%
-14.7pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.7pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Gloucester City EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.74/0.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.80
-12% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Gloucester City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Gloucester City Gloucester City 3-0 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
15.04.2023 Gloucester City Gloucester City 1-1 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
15.10.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Gloucester City Gloucester City İCON
22.02.2022 Gloucester City Gloucester City 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
11.12.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Gloucester City Gloucester City İCON
28.01.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 6-1 HT 3-1 Gloucester City Gloucester City İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
3-0
AWAY Gloucester City
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Gloucester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town swept aside Gloucester City 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 55% of the ball to Gloucester City's 45%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gloucester City led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.33 for Gloucester City.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Gloucester City?

Alfreton Town 3-0 Gloucester City in the England - Conference on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Gloucester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 58%, draw 22%, Gloucester City 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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