Cheltenham Town 0-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2024

Cheltenham Town
0-1 HT 0-1
Carlisle United
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.64
Over 2.5
51%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
15%
3.85
X/2
10%
9.13
X/X
16%
4.24
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
13%
7.79
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
43%
+8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cheltenham Town v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.44/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.47
-18% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 60%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.0 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 0.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
176 Passes 259
58% Pass Accuracy 65%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
27.04.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.11.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
11.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
20.08.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
19.01.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Cheltenham Town 0-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
0-1
AWAY Carlisle United
0.44 xG 1.06
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
260 Passes 137
59% Pass Accuracy 47%
19 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United squeezed past Cheltenham Town 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Cheltenham Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 60% of the ball to Carlisle United's 40%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.44 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cheltenham Town and 0.67 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United?

Cheltenham Town 0-1 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 43%, draw 27%, Carlisle United 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Cheltenham Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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