Leyton Orient 2-2 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2024

📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 34% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.86
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
15%
4.41
X/2
12%
6.88
X/X
14%
4.4
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
9%
5.33
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.17/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.42
-26% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
286 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 64%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.4 Crosses 15.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Exeter City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.52
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 251
62% Pass Accuracy 65%
14 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
08.02.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 1-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
14.08.2021 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3-0 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
06.03.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 4-0 HT 3-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
27.10.2020 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
14.09.2019 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 1-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
2-2
AWAY Exeter City
0.29 xG 1.55
37% Ball Possession 63%
4 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 11
290 Passes 511
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 46
7 Crosses 34
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient and Exeter City couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leyton Orient at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 37% of the ball to Exeter City's 63%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.29 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.50 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Exeter City?

Leyton Orient 2-2 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 42%, draw 28%, Exeter City 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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