Stevenage 2-1 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2024

📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.95
X/2
10%
5.81
X/X
16%
4.0
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
22%
4.41
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
40%
-8.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+6.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +30%
1.14/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.28
-24% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +56%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
273 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 64%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
24.5 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.42 xG 0.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
209 Passes 275
60% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.12.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 2-1 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
2-1
AWAY Barnsley
1.82 xG 0.69
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 7
166 Passes 332
60% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage nicked a narrow win over Barnsley 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Stevenage made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stevenage had 39% of the ball to Barnsley's 61%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.82 to 0.69.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Barnsley?

Stevenage 2-1 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 31%, draw 30%, Barnsley 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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