Verl 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.41
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.57
X/2
8%
8.55
X/X
12%
5.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.45
2/2
14%
6.34
2/X
6%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -1%
1.76/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.70
+3% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
623 Passes 179
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 HT 3-0 Verl Verl AL3
17.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 5-2 HT 3-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.09.2023 Verl Verl 2-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
24.04.2023 Verl Verl 2-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
29.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-0 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
06.05.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 HT 1-0 Verl Verl AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
0-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
74% Ball Possession 26%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 5
546 Passes 123
85% Pass Accuracy 56%
37 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Verl vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II edged past Verl 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Verl had 74% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 26%, shots finished 23-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Verl and 2.33 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Verl vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Verl 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Verl 45%, draw 27%, Borussia Dortmund II 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
9 Apr 2025
20:00 Energie Cottbus vs Rot-Weiss Essen Analysis →
20:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Ingolstadt Analysis →
20:00 Osnabrück vs Hansa Rostock Analysis →
20:00 1860 München vs Sandhausen Analysis →