Gremio 2-0 Atletico Grau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.22
Draw
27%
5.28
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.21
Over 2.5
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No OUR CALL
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 29% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.34
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
29.5
X/1
21%
3.64
X/2
5%
30.0
X/X
13%
8.55
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
9%
30.0
2/X
6%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
78%
-23.5pp
27%
Draw
16%
+10.7pp
19%
Away Win
7%
+12.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.4pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 9%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.15/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.23/1.55
-19% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +117%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 5.0
16.0 Crosses 8.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-0
AWAY Atletico Grau
1.76 xG 0.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
459 Passes 274
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Grau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio beat Atletico Grau 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Gremio had 61% of the ball to Atletico Grau's 39%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.76 to 0.47.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Grau?

Gremio 2-0 Atletico Grau in the Copa Sudamericana on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Grau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Gremio 54%, draw 27%, Atletico Grau 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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