Vasco da Gama 1-0 Academia Puerto Cabello — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
61%
1.25
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.6
No
55%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.41
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
28.0
X/1
12%
3.53
X/2
6%
27.0
X/X
10%
7.44
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
6%
27.5
2/X
5%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Vasco da Gama win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
76%
-15.2pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.5pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
34%
+10.9pp
55%
BTTS No
66%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Academia Puerto Cabello EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
326 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
Crosses 14.1
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-0
AWAY Academia Puerto Cabello
2.57 xG 0.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
22 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
370 Passes 261
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 6
33 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Academia Puerto Cabello
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama nicked a narrow win over Academia Puerto Cabello 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 58% of the ball to Academia Puerto Cabello's 42%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.57 to 0.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vasco da Gama's control.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

Vasco da Gama 1-0 Academia Puerto Cabello in the Copa Sudamericana on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 61%, draw 22%, Academia Puerto Cabello 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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