Independiente 2-1 Boston River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
59%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.4
No
57%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.55
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
23.3
X/1
19%
3.58
X/2
5%
19.9
X/X
9%
6.42
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
8%
19.55
2/X
8%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Independiente win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
72%
-12.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
38%
+5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
62%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Boston River EU Bookmakers 12%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+85% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
461 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 201 · 65%
76.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
47.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
2-1
AWAY Boston River
2.55 xG 0.40
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
430 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Boston River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente squeezed past Boston River 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente had 62% of the ball to Boston River's 38%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.55 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente's control.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Boston River?

Independiente 2-1 Boston River in the Copa Sudamericana on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Boston River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Independiente 59%, draw 23%, Boston River 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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