Aarau 1-2 Sion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 May 2024

Aarau
1-2 HT 1-1
Sion
📅09/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Aarau vs Sion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
58%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.21
2-3 Goals
43%
1.97
4-5 Goals
20%
2.71
6+ Goals
13%
6.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.21 — our 24% vs market 14.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
3%
2/2
36%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.5pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.5pp
58%
Away Win
67%
-8.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.3pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aarau v Sion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sion EU Bookmakers 71%
+47% / +47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.25/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.67
+150% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +78%
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
11.3 Crosses 21.1
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Aarau vs Sion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.58 xG 1.35
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
485 Passes 353
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2024 Sion Sion 2-0 HT 2-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.11.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-0 HT 0-0 Sion Sion İSV2
28.07.2023 Sion Sion 1-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
10.02.2021 Aarau Aarau 4-2 HT 1-0 Sion Sion İSVK
15.09.2019 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-1 Sion Sion İSVK
16.05.2015 Sion Sion 1-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV

Aarau 1-2 Sion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-2
AWAY Sion
0.75 xG 2.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
4 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
363 Passes 388
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Box Touches 34
8 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Sion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sion squeezed past Aarau 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sion as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aarau had 49% of the ball to Sion's 51%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.75 to 2.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sion's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Aarau and 1.33 for Sion.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Sion?

Aarau 1-2 Sion in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Sion?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sion win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Aarau 22%, draw 20%, Sion 58%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sion), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sion) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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