Wil 1900 3-1 Baden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.43
Over 2.5
49%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
5.22
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
24%
2.71
6+ Goals
10%
6.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.22 — our 30% vs market 14.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.2pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wil 1900 EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Baden EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.89/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.77
-9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
23.7 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wil 1900
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Baden
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 0.69
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
472 Passes 279
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Baden Baden 2-1 HT 1-1 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
27.10.2023 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 0-1 HT 0-1 Baden Baden İSV2
27.08.2023 Baden Baden 0-5 HT 0-1 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wil 1900
3-1
AWAY Baden
1.51 xG 1.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
418 Passes 339
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wil 1900 vs Baden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wil 1900 got the better of Baden 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wil 1900 as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wil 1900 had 55% of the ball to Baden's 45%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.51 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Baden led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Wil 1900 and 1.00 for Baden.

What was the final score of Wil 1900 vs Baden?

Wil 1900 3-1 Baden in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wil 1900 vs Baden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wil 1900 win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Wil 1900 56%, draw 23%, Baden 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wil 1900) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wil 1900) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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