Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Royal Antwerp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.64
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.44
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 36% vs market 31.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
24%
3.81
X/2
10%
8.83
X/X
14%
4.36
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
13%
7.55
2/X
7%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+8.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.4pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Royal Antwerp EU Bookmakers 24%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.52
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +150%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
378 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
Crosses 5.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Royal Antwerp
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 0.95
44% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
261 Passes 395
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 HT 2-1 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
25.04.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 0-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.03.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-2 HT 1-2 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
28.05.2023 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.05.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-2 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1-0
AWAY Royal Antwerp
1.42 xG 0.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
253 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Royal Antwerp 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 43% of the ball to Royal Antwerp's 57%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.42 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.17 for Royal Antwerp.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Royal Antwerp in the Belgium - Cup on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 45%, draw 26%, Royal Antwerp 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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