Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 Royal Antwerp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
11%
3.74
X/2 EV+ ✗
11%
10.9
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
10%
8.79
2/X
6%
16.85
Value flag · X/2 at 10.9 — our 11% vs market 5.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Royal Antwerp EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.89/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.73
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.9 Crosses 13.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Royal Antwerp
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.32 xG 1.06
42% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
261 Passes 427
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.04.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 0-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.03.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-2 HT 1-2 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
28.05.2023 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.05.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-2 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
02.03.2023 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
4-1
AWAY Royal Antwerp
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise ran out comfortable winners over Royal Antwerp 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 47% of the ball to Royal Antwerp's 53%, shots finished 13-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Royal Antwerp led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.17 for Royal Antwerp.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 Royal Antwerp in the Belgium - Pro League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 51%, draw 23%, Royal Antwerp 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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