Concarneau 5-2 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
48%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.74
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.93
6+ Goals
11%
18.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.63
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
4%
17.35
X/1
7%
9.94
X/2
18%
4.06
X/X
16%
4.71
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
2.21
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.4
Value flag · 2/X at 15.4 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
19%
+2.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.8pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Concarneau EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 59%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.77/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.58
-35% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +81%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
194 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Concarneau
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Le Mans FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.01.2025 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 3-1 HT 1-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
06.02.2023 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 3-2 HT 1-1 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
26.08.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
07.03.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 0-1 HT 0-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
24.09.2021 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
19.03.2021 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Concarneau
5-2
AWAY Le Mans FC
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Concarneau vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Concarneau ran out comfortable winners over Le Mans FC 5-2. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Le Mans FC at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Concarneau had 51% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 49%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Mans FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Concarneau and 1.33 for Le Mans FC.

What was the final score of Concarneau vs Le Mans FC?

Concarneau 5-2 Le Mans FC in the France - National League 1 on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Concarneau vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Concarneau 22%, draw 30%, Le Mans FC 48%. The final score 5-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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