Başakşehir FK 1-4 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 May 2025

Başakşehir FK
1-4 HT 0-1
Fenerbahçe
📅09/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2024/2025

Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.44
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
20.5
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
9%
9.11
X/2
13%
4.61
X/X
11%
6.03
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
23%
2.26
2/X
6%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.5 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+5.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Fenerbahçe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.91/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.03
-17% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
279 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 85%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
12.5 Crosses 19.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.49 xG 1.97
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
244 Passes 416
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
6 Box Touches 40
9 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
24.01.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
28.09.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 3-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.06.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TÜK
19.04.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-2 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
22.10.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL

Başakşehir FK 1-4 Fenerbahçe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-4
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.46 xG 3.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
365 Passes 372
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe ran out comfortable winners over Başakşehir FK 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 50% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 50%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.46 to 3.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Başakşehir FK and 2.17 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Başakşehir FK 1-4 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 29%, draw 25%, Fenerbahçe 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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